Our analysis is based on long term trends, and if they are promissing, short term analysis. First, we view the
3 year weekly charts, followed by a 1 year daily chart. This analysis allows you to view the larger picture and trend,
rather than just looking at a short term prospective. This way, you can use short term volatilty to your advantage, if the
long term trend is positive.
You will see a summery of the stock we are analyzing, followed by the 3 year and 1 year charts. At the end, you will see a technical analysis summery. That's it,
to the point technical stock market analysis daily!
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Technical Analysis for March 15 2006
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| STOCK: TORONTO STOCK EXCHANGE (TSX) |
WEBSITE: www.tsx.com |
| CURRENT PRICE: 11,973 |
TREND: REACHING RESISTANCE |
| TARGET PRICE: N/A |
RECOMMENDATION: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION |
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Long Term Chart (Weekly 3yr) - To view the bigger picture
Charts Courtesy of StockCharts.com
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Short Term Chart (Daily 1yr) - Where to take a position
Charts Courtesy of StockCharts.com
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The Toronto Stock Exchange is our focus for todays technical analysis. Many stock market predications these days are calling for a hefty correction, and even a possible end to the bull market that has caused the TSX to reach all time highs. Lets take a look at the first chart, which is the long term weekly one, based on a three year term. The market is having a tough time trying to plough through 12,000, a mark it reached a few times, only to retreat from, with also occurred yesterday during trading as well. The indicators suggest a possible drop in the works, which is evident by the MACD. The indicator is looking to make a negative cross over, and may cause the market to have some sort of a pull back, but if you look at the recent movement in relation to the MACD, you can see the index holding its own as the MACD treads lower. So, is this a false indication of a break down, or are the chances of a break down occurring weak? Its hard to say for sure at this point in time, but to take an educated guess, there may be a pull back, but we’re siding on a weak one occurring, with continuation to record levels in due time. If you take a look at the short term chart, you can see the index forming an ascending triangle which peaks at the 12,000 level. The index should continue to trade in an increasingly narrow range until an inevitable breakout occurs. On this chart, you can also see the MACD trying to make a positive cross over, and the prior MACD lows have been increasing, suggesting that the bears are getting increasingly weaker.
Overall, the market may be in for some sort of consolidation, but we believe 12,000 will be broken in the short to intermediate term, with further confirmation required on the long end. The index has support around 11,500, so we believe this level should hold if there is a correction in the works.
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